Africa and the Gulf in a Multipolar Economy: Trade, Investment, and Strategic Partnerships

00:00:17: Hello, everyone.

00:00:18: Welcome to the sixth episode of The Wazap Podcast – the Africa-West Asia podcast part of Carpo's West Asia and Sub Sahara African partnerships in Flux project….

00:00:30: …of which the acronym is WazAP.

00:00:32: My name is Desiree Custerz.

00:00:34: I am a Project Manager with Carpo And one your hosts for today

00:00:39: And my name is Uber King Cole Senior Researcher at Carpo.

00:00:43: Today, we are really delighted to be joined by Aparupa Shakravarti.

00:00:49: I hope I did not butcher your name.

00:00:51: Who is a strategist working at the intersection of geopolitics business development and social impact across Africa and the Gulf?

00:01:00: Aparopa welcome!

00:01:01: And thank you for joining us.

00:01:03: It's wonderful to be here and well done with my name.

00:01:06: You do not butcher it all.

00:01:08: Thank you

00:01:09: Yes, Aparupa also from my side.

00:01:12: Welcome!

00:01:12: Let's start by you introducing yourself.

00:01:15: I mean... You've worked extensively across Africa and the Gulf helping governments businesses and development actors navigate economic ties & relationships.

00:01:26: Could you just start telling us how you became interested in this topic?

00:01:30: And more specifically on Gulf-Africa Economic Ties?

00:01:34: Yes, absolutely.

00:01:35: I guess a little bit of background about myself.

00:01:36: I'm originally from India but have lived in at this point ten countries across four continents and worked on very many more countries across various parts Africa the Gulf South Asia as well as stints earlier my career in US and Europe But very much emerging markets focused into professional life And spent last fifteen odd years give or take focusing on promoting trade and investment relations centering Africa, an ecosystem development centring Africa.

00:02:06: And I've done this across a wide variety of sectors in industries.

00:02:09: I'm currently the head of business intelligence and strategic content at IC Publications.

00:02:14: I am also editor one their platforms AB Intelligence.

00:02:18: This is wonderful opportunity for me to continue help shape strategic narratives investments at pan-African level.

00:02:26: Now, my love affair for Africa actually started a very long time ago if I'm going to be honest because i used to live in Namibia as a child.

00:02:35: My father was a career diplomat and he helped set up the first Indian High Commission post-apartheid.

00:02:42: so I really believe strongly that seeds were planted way back when I was just little girl And over the years, that relationship has really deepened and expanded.

00:02:52: I've spent more than a third of my life at this point in Africa... ...and it's really my adopted home and center for professional interests.

00:03:00: In terms of African-Gulf relations like most things in my career.... This was really serendipitous.

00:03:06: With my previous employer, both the emerging markets group when I was brought on board The founder decided to move to the Gulf To set up our Middle East practice and i Was responsible for Africa practice.

00:03:17: but very quickly I came to sort of manage Both portfolios And am so grateful For that because not only did it introduce me to this Very interesting and evolving relationship back When People really weren't paying that much attention to it, at least not in the way they are now.

00:03:34: And then also introduced me into this spectacular new region which is The Gulf where I had no real exposure prior to that.

00:03:41: Aparuba sounds as if you have a privileged position sitting between both regions and you've observed relations grow between them.

00:03:53: Why do you think Gulf countries have become increasingly important partners for many African states?

00:04:00: At the same time, what sort of comparative advantages do Gulf actors bring to the continent.

00:04:06: For example Do they bring a different investment model or instance?

00:04:11: What is your take?

00:04:12: so I think this needs to be put into little bit broader context.

00:04:18: I think there's been growing optionality for African countries in terms of who their international partners are.

00:04:24: China was, at least my opinion a hundred percent that inflection point also demonstrating that, you know one size does not necessarily have to fit all.

00:04:36: And then I think the Gulf States has really been the next inflection point by not only adding those plethora of options that African countries now have in terms who their engagement partners are internationally but also demonstrating new and additional modus operandi What gives them a comparative advantage?

00:04:57: I actually think it's the combination of things.

00:04:59: First and foremost, they have quite deep pockets but what makes this much more powerful is that their willing to spend money relatively quickly And on top of that, they do so with very long-term time horizons.

00:05:12: I think this is a very powerful combination.

00:05:15: You have available to you massive foundation capital and willing spend it relatively fast and willing invested for the long haul.

00:05:24: That, I think is a very rare and very powerful combination.

00:05:28: And then in addition to that the two other things i would like point out are they've actually been well diversified.

00:05:39: And then of course, there's the geographic proximity and cultural proximity.

00:05:43: I think all those things in combination have really made golf actors uniquely equipped to position themselves as very compelling and premier partners for African continent.

00:05:57: That's very fascinating.

00:05:58: Aparupa, thank you for highlighting the investment model that makes the Gulf attractive to many African countries and You mentioned that economic ties take place in various sectors.

00:06:09: Of course when we hear golf investment in Africa We often think of ports infrastructure even real estate.

00:06:16: but In your opinion what are some of the sectors that are important?

00:06:21: And they deserve a bit more attention?

00:06:24: Yes, absolutely.

00:06:25: I'd like to preface this first by saying that it's not just about the sector you're looking at.

00:06:30: It is also where in the value change we are focusing.

00:06:33: and i think This is particularly important now more than ever because African governments Are really trying move away from conventional extractivist models of engagement That have relegated african economies To the bottom various values chains And showing up our policies up in conferences, showing it up in the way that we're structuring deals and investments.

00:06:57: And I think that's fantastic!

00:06:58: So i just want to sort of caveat this with not only where are you looking but at what point along the value chain?

00:07:04: In terms or where should be paying attention which I think is obvious but i'll say it anyway because so important, renewable energy.

00:07:18: Renewable energy is critical both to the Gulf's energy security needs Because a big part of what they're trying to do is sort of diversify away from hydrocarbons But also really aligns with Africa's energy-security needs.

00:07:33: and now everything that happening in the world Today, I think there's more impetus now than ever in terms of these renewable energy investments and relationships.

00:07:40: And there is a lot that happening here including a lot state-backed investment from actors like Aqua Power from Saudi Arabia Mazdar from the UAE Qatar Investment Authority as well other sort of private powers such as Amir power.

00:07:53: so there are lots attention on capital and strategic alignment between both regions.

00:07:58: The second thing I want to highlight is actually the creative economy, which as a massive sector in and of itself has tons of industries.

00:08:06: And i think both regions have really recognized how the Creative Economy can transform into an engine for economic growth and job creation.

00:08:14: So I think there's a lot of really interesting things that are happening here.

00:08:18: Afriak Zimbang just recently launched the one billion dollar fund to support Africa film industry and, Of course you know There is a tonne money that has been spent in the Gulf In terms then entertainment industries.

00:08:28: But some other partners or partnerships coming up between them Are also very Very Interesting And worthwhile To look out for.

00:08:34: Just call it One as an example.

00:08:37: The Qatar Foundation underwritten by the Qatar Investment Authority has been working with Basketball Africa League.

00:08:43: It's a multi-year partnership, they're really trying to expand access to sports and try get more women involved.

00:08:49: They are trying to renovate and rebuild sports infrastructure.

00:08:52: I think this is just tip of the iceberg there so much that happening in it could happen.

00:08:57: And then lastly i think tech innovation space artificial intelligence was big one.

00:09:04: recently UAE launched billion dollar initiative that's looking specifically at AI for development, focusing on Africa to support the Africa's AI Development and AI-enabled services.

00:09:15: But even beyond AI, opportunities are vast everything from digital infrastructure all the way to startups.

00:09:21: And the Gulf countries are looking at start ups of two levels not just investing in startup themselves At their organizational level but also developing massive funds To support startups various stages.

00:09:32: So I think thats a really interesting space.

00:09:36: And then just one final thing that I want to note, i don't think it makes sense look at these three things as individual verticals.

00:09:48: industries, I mean something like AI and technology is cross-cutting in of itself.

00:09:52: And can apply to things that the creative economy renewable energy investments will be required to support development of tech ecosystems all these are interrelated some way.

00:10:01: when we're looking at Gulf investment in Africa or even vice versa i think it's good as a portfolio of mutually reinforcing investments

00:10:10: this really interesting aparopa reinforcing investments.

00:10:16: I just want to expand on this a little bit because within our WASA project, recurring theme is that of African agency.

00:10:26: There are those who argue that Africa remains a passive recipient of external investment, including golf investments on the continent.

00:10:35: How do you specifically see African states and businesses shaping in terms of engagement with golf partners?

00:10:44: And exercising agency within this dynamic?

00:10:47: Yeah!

00:10:48: The agency question is really important but I think we're not always approaching it from the right direction.

00:10:54: I think at this point, going back to what i was saying about optionality and African countries having more and more options in terms of who they can work with.

00:11:02: And In What Terms?

00:11:03: I Think That Already Creates Conditions For Real Agency.

00:11:10: So I don't think the question is whether or not Africa has agency anymore.

00:11:13: The african country's a hundred percent have agency and They've Been Exercising it as well!I think now the real Question Is How do African countries, whether that's the policy level or state-level?

00:11:23: The business level.

00:11:24: how to make sure we're using our leverage strategically and effectively?

00:11:30: I think thats a real question.

00:11:32: And in terms of how african states & businesses are shaping this engagement I mean, I alluded earlier to the fact that African governments are really trying now push away from extractivist relationships.

00:11:43: It's coming up in policies.

00:11:44: it is coming up and conversations its coming up deals And i think especially a lot of these export bans that have been introduced into the continent for raw materials.

00:11:53: Its not only step but big step.

00:11:55: everything from Raw Cotton in Benin To Cobalt in DRC to Lithium Zambia Zimbabwe These very important moves and signals For where this government are heading in terms of their ambitions for that country's respective economic development.

00:12:11: And then on the business side, is I'm seeing more reciprocal linkages.

00:12:19: Going back to what you said about, being a passive recipient... ...I am seeing a lot of bi-directional flows.

00:12:24: if we take startups for example the Saudis, Emirates, Qataris

00:12:29: etc.,

00:12:29: they are coming in and investing in African startups but African startups also expanding into the Gulf which is fantastic!

00:12:35: In all kinds of sectors from e-mobility to fintech too All kinds things.

00:12:40: And i think that circularity of movement is a very, very good thing because it's that reciprocal relationship.

00:12:50: That will help make this into more equitable partnership over time at least from business and private sector point-of-view.

00:12:58: .That said I think there are lot room for growth improvement.

00:13:02: like all things And some the areas i would call out given how quickly this relationship between both regions has expanded and grown, I really think that there needs to be a coherent and coordinated strategy at the regional level for both the Gulf as well on Africa side.

00:13:24: And especially in the African side because we have so much on impetus pan-African coordination, regional coordination.

00:13:32: If we're actually serious about those things that needs to extend our external partnerships at the very least in terms of a common understanding here's vision and big picture ambition or general framework then leaving individual states enough room for maneuver which is important.

00:13:47: And extending beyond that.

00:13:50: I think deal making has to start expanding outward sort of, you know bilateral government to government or politicians.

00:14:01: I think if we're able to start investing really in that business-to-business people-to–people relationship it's going go a long way in terms strengthening these mutually beneficial ties.

00:14:13: Thank You!

00:14:14: You spoke earlier about Gulf African relations developing as an inflection point and at the same time also how African countries increasingly diversify their economic relations and I'm wondering how you relate these two to the increasingly multi-polar global order that is taking shape.

00:14:35: How do you see that they relate together?

00:14:38: I think globally we are at our crossroads, multipolarity in my view can represent one of two things... Of course i'm simplifying!

00:14:46: These things exist on a continuum but just for argument's sake.. One of Two Things In one direction which is the direction that I am hoping for, Multi-Polarity represents redistribution of geoeconomic and geopolitical power, hopefully towards something that is more equitable at a global scale.

00:15:03: Right?

00:15:03: That's what I think... At least those in this conversation are hoping for.

00:15:07: but on the flip side, multi-polarity can also represent fragmentation an increased competition And yes!

00:15:15: A rebalancing of power But towards different forms of consolidation rather than a more equal distribution Of it Because we're in a transition period right now.

00:15:27: Transition periods can unfold over years, it's not decades.

00:15:30: especially when its happening at the global scale.

00:15:31: It is difficult to say where will land definitively In terms of where this multi polarity has taken us.

00:15:38: How does translates into that Africa-Gulf relationship?

00:15:42: We are not immune to these shifts and it going affect as multiple levels in terms of intra African relationship The Intra Gulf Relationship.

00:15:53: But going back to what I was saying about the need for a more coherent, integrated internal strategy.

00:15:59: If we're able to achieve internal alignment as two separate regions and then work with each other based on that internal alignment there's ton of scope for mutual development –I hundred percent believe it!

00:16:13: However if there is internal fragmentation in competition eventually this will put our relationship at risk.

00:16:23: multi-polarity.

00:16:25: And I think what remains to be seen is where we land on that continuum.

00:16:29: This is quite fascinating Aparupa.

00:16:32: I'm thinking to myself, I would like to explore more in terms of specific ways which this internal cohesion can be achieved on both sides.

00:16:40: perhaps we will do these over coffee when meet soon.

00:16:44: but as were entering the last section for today's episode i just want move a bit beyond you know economic question that your have addressed.

00:16:54: and Of course, economic relations are built ultimately by people.

00:16:59: And I'm wondering what kinds of people-to-people professional education or even philanthropic connections do you see emerging alongside the economic engagement between both regions?

00:17:14: that we need to remember and be cognizant of is these ties are actually not new.

00:17:21: The Gulf-African relationship goes back centuries, especially if you look at the Red Sea Indian Ocean region.

00:17:27: These are very old ties And I think this question really is will these ties continue to deepen or diversify?

00:17:36: Or they shrink?

00:17:38: So all areas which have been mentioned the foundations for those areas already exist.

00:17:43: The Gulf actually has a very long and rich track record of philanthropic giving within Africa, especially in the larger context of Islamic Giving.

00:17:51: educational ties are expanding.

00:17:53: there's more and more African students going to study in Gulf countries in their universities at various levels from you know undergraduate all the way to PhDs.

00:18:00: even people-to-people relationship is diversifying where we had certain types of capital that were going from Africa to the Gulf.

00:18:10: But now we're seeing that is expanding, not just in terms of level training for African professionals who are there but also in terms with sectors and industries.

00:18:22: they operate into everything from construction to hospitality or real estate.

00:18:26: it's really diversifying.

00:18:28: so these all positive shifts.

00:18:32: The fact about this matter is world shrinking a lot Visa regimes are tightening, borders becoming less porous.

00:18:41: And at some point even if knowledge and capital is able to flow easily around the world because you know we're connected by internet At sometime when people aren't able to float easily it's going have an impact.

00:18:54: It will start effect those foundations.

00:18:56: So as were building these economic ties We also need be very deliberate about protecting and growing this other linkages Because they two not separate And one is actually not a byproduct of each other.

00:19:08: I think they come together in a very symbiotic way and reinforce another, so as we're thinking about expanding economic ties We also need to make sure that we are being deliberate on strengthening these relationships because this will be the key for long term sustainability.

00:19:29: Thank you Maybe as a follow-up question, would you have an example on how those two tracks could be linked both the people to people and economic ties?

00:19:40: I think remittances are actually a very clear link between those two things, right?

00:19:47: Right now, remittance is coming into Africa are actually enormous.

00:19:51: I forget the exact data point off of my head at that moment but as for couple years ago it exceeded official development assistance in terms quantity and value.

00:20:00: so remittence from diaspora is coming to Africa an enormous source capital.

00:20:07: As far as I know, the US is still the largest source of remittances for the African continent.

00:20:13: But i'd be very curious to see how this develops in three or five years because more and more Africans go towards the Gulf And everything from laborers like as an hospitality workers it's a diverse group They're going to be sending back capital.

00:20:38: knock on effects.

00:20:39: And as remittances start to grow, we're seeing this with the US right?

00:20:44: Like there's a lot more effort now to organize that capital and bring it back home in very structured vehicles and very structured investments.

00:20:51: all of That has an impact In terms of what's happening on the continent and their relationship Back With The Other Country.

00:20:58: So I think that is probably the cleanest link that i can Think Of.

00:21:03: but There are so many others.

00:21:05: Thank you.

00:21:06: That could be one of the trends to look out for when it comes to Gulf Africa relations, but looking ahead are there any other Trends that you would recommend policymakers researchers and businesses?

00:21:17: To pay attention too

00:21:19: actually I think It Would Be People.

00:21:22: You know i was on a panel A few Years ago Was Actually in Dubai And The Panel Is On The Future Of Work And The Framing For This Panel That I was on.

00:21:31: It was talking about how the world is going to be grappling with serious labor shortages in a not too distant future.

00:21:37: But what's very interesting, was nowhere in the framing did it mention Africa.

00:21:43: and when I came on board of course i spoke about africa because that you know.

00:21:47: uh there's a center or what i do.

00:21:49: And When I introduced Africa into the mix it completely changed the conversation Because Very quickly people realized That we're Not Going To Have A Talented Shortage Problem!

00:21:59: I'm sitting On The Youngest Content In The World.

00:22:01: we're going to have a talent distribution problem.

00:22:04: Because the way that demographics are growing, Africa is gonna be young and it's gonna producing working professionals for very long time to come while other regions around world including I mean not as bad maybe in west but Gulf will age faster than African continent does right?

00:22:19: So i think paying attention people migration flows, how they're being trained what their been positioned for.

00:22:27: Where are there going?

00:22:29: How do we retain them where to send that it makes sense in terms of a strategic reciprocal relationship I think is one the biggest Issues that researchers policymakers employers anyone really will have to contend with and we're already contending with it, right?

00:22:47: But I think It's going to become That much more of a larger issue as time goes on Especially if you are not able to meet some of these things head-on.

00:22:56: Indeed.

00:22:57: I can already pick a few Jesus from this conversation that i believe require more exploration in different contexts, the question around remittances of course.

00:23:09: It's one of them people-to-people relations how for instance war in the Middle East now even affects the flow of remittance and the flow on both sides.

00:23:19: you know there are so many things that have highlighted but Aparupa thankyou very much For being here with us And sharing this important insight.

00:23:30: Thank you for having me.

00:23:31: This has been a wonderful

00:23:47: conversation!