Energy, Ports, and Corridors in Gulf–Africa Relations

00:00:17: Hello, everyone.

00:00:18: And thank you for tuning into WhatsApp the Africa West Asia podcast brought to you by Carpo's project west asia and sub-saharan african partnerships in flux.

00:00:30: For those of you joining for the first time my name is Desiree Custer.

00:00:34: I'm a Project Manager at Carpo and one of your hosts.

00:00:45: Each of our episodes explores a different aspect of Gulf Africa relations.

00:00:50: And today, we turn to the topic at the crossroads of economics, geopolitics and infrastructure namely energy and port corridors... ...and how they're reshaping ties between the Gulf and Africa.

00:01:04: To unpack this with us We are delighted.

00:01:08: welcome two leading voices on the subject.

00:01:11: First Dr Madalena Pocopio who is Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

00:01:20: Madalena works in Africa-EU relations, African Middle East ties and economic and natural resource dynamics across the continent with particular expertise of golf engagement around the continent

00:01:35: And joining her is Dr.

00:01:36: May Darwish, who's associate professor in international relations of the Middle East at the University of Birmingham.

00:01:45: Her research focuses on International Relations and Infrastructure Politics In The Arabian Peninsula & The Horn Of Africa with a particular focus on ports-and power projection.

00:01:57: Welcome to you both!

00:01:59: Madalena, I would like to maybe start with you by asking a question.

00:02:05: Over the last decade or two Gulf Africa economic ties have accelerated in striking ways.

00:02:13: from your perspective and based on what structural shifts have driven this transformation?

00:02:21: And where are these connections in sectors such as energy ports infrastructure or logistics most visible today.

00:02:30: Thank you Desiree, thank you Hubert for having me on this podcast.

00:02:35: To dive immediately into the question, I think that what has changed in the last decade or so is both the volume and nature of Gulf-Africa relations.

00:02:46: Gulf states – in particular the UAE and Saudi Arabia have started deploying capital as a deliberate instrument of strategic statecraft which is sectorally targeted and institutionally anchored if we think for example on the appointment of minister level officials with specific Africa mandates in both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

00:03:07: This is a clear signal that the continent now features much more centrally long-term strategic planning.

00:03:14: investment flows have increased significantly with the UAE featuring among very top investors on the continent, particularly in greenfield investments.

00:03:24: trade flows also reinforced this trajectory.

00:03:27: if we think for example Africa's share of Saudi Arabia global trade has doubled since The same is for Oman.

00:03:36: We often talk of UAE, Saudi and Qatar but actually trade for Omen with Africa has also doubled in recent years.

00:03:45: For the UAE was already a higher share over ten percent And this is sustained trend.

00:03:51: The structure of trade is interesting.

00:03:53: Also Gulf states mainly expert to africa refined petroleum products Leveraging their strengths as oil and gas economies while they import gold, minerals and agricultural goods.

00:04:06: On the surface these resemble Africa's trade with other external partners which is largely extractivist in nature.

00:04:14: but increasingly these flows are actually being embedded longer term strategies that see Africa also as a node of global flow.

00:04:24: The main shifts behind all of these are, I think can be grouped into three categories.

00:04:30: One is a push factor from the Gulf as these economies confront long-term limits on hydrocarbon dependence.

00:04:37: Africa offers what they don't have at home which is agricultural land, mineral resources fast growing consumer markets and sustained demand for energy.

00:04:48: The COVID pandemic reinforced this logic exposing vulnerabilities in supply chains and accelerating efforts to diversify not only revenue sources, but also geographic exposure.

00:05:01: And the current crisis is also reinforcing exactly these.

00:05:05: The second is a pull factor from Africa.

00:05:08: rapid urbanization demographic growth frameworks like the African continent of free trade area are making the continent more attractive for long term investment while also possibly creating opportunities to scale production and trade within the continent.

00:05:25: The third point is broader global dynamics that pushed this change between Gulf Africa, middle powers like the UAE in Saudi Arabia so in a great power.

00:05:36: competition mainly between the US and China.

00:05:39: an opportunity to position themselves as indispensable intermediaries between competing geopolitical blocks but also between the Global South needs Western sort of perceived imposition.

00:05:53: Africa is central to being able for these countries to exercise their intermediary identity.

00:06:01: And so, this are the three main factors that I see as grouped in reshaping these.

00:06:07: and it's evident on different sectors.

00:06:10: Energy is very central.

00:06:12: Gold factors are expanding simultaneously fossil fuel and renewables markets... ...and they're trying to shape global transition narrative is rejecting Western dominant views, especially European dominant views of rapid transitions.

00:06:28: But you have other sexes like historically agriculture that has been running for a longer time but it's now becoming even more relevant.

00:06:39: and then you have gold precious stones and minerals.

00:06:43: Gold has been a central resource in the trade between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa for centuries, really.

00:06:49: But exports have increased so as Dubai has become a central hub of global gold refining.

00:06:56: but on top minerals are increasingly strategic given their role in green digital and defence industries.

00:07:04: And underlying this logic I think is logistics ports, inland logistics networks.

00:07:10: Aviation companies like DP World.

00:07:13: Abu Dhabi Ports are increasingly prominent but also golf carriers in aviation turning hubs into the Gulf of Dubai and Abu Dabhi becoming transit for the continent.

00:07:26: so overall picture is a shift driven by both internal and external factors with gold states positioning themselves along value chains that link more directly African production to global markets?

00:07:41: Thank you so much, Madalena.

00:07:42: That is quite a comprehensive overview of the structural factors that are actually driving these economic ties between the Gulf and Africa And the point around geopolitical context.

00:07:57: it's very important.

00:07:59: But now I'd like to turn your research dive deep into politics and maritime corridors bridging the Arabian Gulf

00:08:09: and

00:08:10: the Horn of Africa, what first drew you to this topic?

00:08:15: And what patterns have you uncovered about how ports and logistics are used for strategic influence in power projection across the Red Sea.

00:08:25: Yeah thank you Hubert and Desiree for having me.

00:08:29: it's a pleasure to be here with you today so my research was Mostly driven by what Madelena has outlined as that change in how the middle powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia became much more invested, focused on the African continent.

00:08:49: And that somehow constitutes a novelty in IR.

00:08:53: in post-colonial era In general The African continent was focus of colonial powers.

00:09:00: Like European powers in particular They become connected to the core or somehow, the center of European powers more than they became connected other regions in the Global South.

00:09:14: And that was some how first wave.

00:09:17: modernization on African continent but also other regions of global south has went through in the nineteen fifties and sixties has been characterized by these dynamics.

00:09:29: But as of late, especially the last two decades what we've seen is somehow that... The modernization that's happening in the African continent but also on global south isn't necessarily characterized by this link to European powers but they are more built on South-South relationships and middle powers.

00:09:54: global South countries became more interested in investing in the African continent and kind of deepening these trade, logistical relationships that did not really exist before.

00:10:07: That they become even more competitive than European powers.

00:10:14: And somewhat, the profits and opportunities that are present in African continent became very appealing to many of these rising powers aimed at including their economic leverage as well as political power.

00:10:32: Because somehow the African continent remains the only continent and the only region in global south where there is still a margin for modernization, also an opportunity to increase profit from investment.

00:10:49: So containerisation if we look at ports... The African continent is the only continent where containerization has not reached its limits, as opposed to other regions in the world.

00:11:02: And therefore any process of modernization of ports and containerization of trade can actually leverage huge economic profits for all these investors especially with the rise of markets, rise of demands urbanization population having more aspiration to modernize all of this creates a high demand.

00:11:24: So from that perspective I became much more interested in understanding is how these kind of middle powers do this on the ground and why port infrastructure has become very central in that process of linking the African continent through this containerization process by modernizing ports, investing in building free zones and corridors.

00:11:51: In actually building the infrastructure that would enable African continent to be integrated into global trade network which has not happened so far until now.

00:12:03: The UAE Saudi Arabia but also China are very much interested in East Africa, but now they're also interested in West Africa and there's expanding further.

00:12:15: They started at least with the Horn of Africa... ...with an aim to access the Ethiopian market a large market And somehow building on all sport infrastructure linking it to global trade would allow them to access a larger market like the Ethiopian Market.

00:12:33: So this is overall how I entered into this area, but more interesting so far is that what we found in our research and my research.

00:12:46: I'm actually working with a collaborative team of several institutions from East Africa.

00:12:54: And in our project, we actually found that it was mainly driven by economic profits.

00:13:00: So most of these companies which are very linked to governments and the UAE or Saudi Arabia they were not necessarily driven by political endeavors Or by power projection sort-of plans or strategic plans.

00:13:17: But in the process of doing this, sometimes these economic projects became instrumentalized later into political means.

00:13:28: Like the example of Sudan is the most famous example that at the beginning it started as a trade-economic investment but somehow when the Sudan war erupted part of a more kind-of political agenda for these countries.

00:13:47: In the Horn of Africa, we still have not seen this.

00:13:50: but it's always a question whether these economic projects can be used later on For political purposes or power projection or not.

00:14:00: But so far This has not been the case and this is also kind of a misperception That very widespread let's say in some circles, that it is all about the UAE or Saudi Arabia projecting power and East Africa.

00:14:13: It's all about this political agenda.

00:14:16: but actually research on the ground does not really show evidence of this.

00:14:22: But again... The intersection between politics and economics are always there so we don't know what future might hold for us.

00:14:33: Thank you very much, Shimei.

00:14:34: That's a very interesting distinction between the political and economic agenda cases and not in some other cases.

00:14:45: So that's really a valuable point you made, And I would like to ask you Madalena In your recent work You also highlight how African governments are not merely recipients of Gulf investment but act strategically within these relationships.

00:15:02: Both mentioned just now the push-and-pull factors for gulf engagement.

00:15:12: how states on the African continent navigate or leverage these push and pull factors, considering the interests of different Gulf States particularly around ports or energy projects.

00:15:26: Or even corridor development to advance in one way or another their domestic visions.

00:15:36: Yes, so I think the goals.

00:15:38: rising interest in Africa comes at a moment when African states are more deliberately and more skillfully diversifying their external partnerships than any previous point of post-independence era.

00:15:53: And also how global context translates into Africa matters.

00:16:00: The United States has retreated from development assistance from its big infrastructure lending period to a more selective posture.

00:16:11: The EU is in the middle of rethinking it's own development and trade architecture, so for African capitals this not only a challenge but an opportunity.

00:16:21: as golf engagement enters these space offering speed capital somewhat fewer political conditions than certain players we see african governments using that transition debate, which we have followed for years.

00:16:38: The narrative was set in Brussels Washington so fossil fuels must go.

00:16:42: Africa should leapfrog to renewables and African governments consistently pushing back arguing that their development needs require more sequenced and just transition.

00:16:53: the Gulf with its dual truck model of sustaining fossil fuel revenues on one side while investing heavily in renewables offered a somewhat different framework and crucially, a different kind of interlocutor in international climate negotiations.

00:17:09: So we saw at COP-IIIII in Dubai, COP produced the first ever International Agreement calling for transition away from fossil fuels in just orderly equitable manner that it was language much more attentive to African development realities than previous COP outcomes And he was shaped in part by the UAE's presidency and posture these broader global governance settings.

00:17:36: If we look at countries and regions, as May was suggesting the Horn of Africa offers somewhat illustration.

00:17:52: pursued distinct and conflicting interests in Sudan for decades.

00:17:59: So gold, agriculture, red sea port access the containment of political Islam and so forth.

00:18:07: but the Sudanese conflict is not simply a Gulf proxy war imposed from outside Sudanese ruling elites over the last thirty years.

00:18:22: play these powers, use these powers to actually exert their own interests.

00:18:28: To extract resources and also diplomatic cover what is happening today no different And none of what happens in the Horn or any other regions.

00:18:38: Actually it's merely piloted from outside Beyond The Horn as May was mentioning there has been increased interest Also across the rest of the continent.

00:18:48: we looked at cases that are a bit less the usual suspects in recent months, like Mauritania and Angola.

00:18:57: And they show how varied agency can be based on different internal political economies.

00:19:05: Nuak Schott for example has leveraged both religious and cultural proximity to the Gulf that dates back centuries actually alongside its strategic value as one of few stable states collapsing Sahelian neighborhood, to attract Gulf capital into gas minerals emerging green hydrogen corridors while simultaneously managing European partners anxious about migration and security.

00:19:34: So this is a small country if we look at GDP but it's actually punching above its weight precisely because he understands what multiple external partners need.

00:19:45: from today.

00:19:47: Angola is another case we looked at, it's almost the opposite profile.

00:19:52: It has no historical golf ties nor religious affinity but its equally strategic.

00:19:59: Its positioning in current great power competition over Atlantic mineral corridors with the Lobito Corridor now a western priority and golf operators like DP World and Abu Dhabi Ports moving into Luanda port to actually also capture an emerging trade route linking Africa to the Americas and Europe via the Atlantic.

00:20:22: The Gulf's arrival is itself a marker of new moment in Angolans foreign policy, so it's not just a gulf imposing itself on Angola but actually Angola deliberately diversifying after years in which China played a dominant largely unchallenged role as Angola's primary development and financing partner.

00:20:43: So...not every deal escapes elite capture or serves local development needs when it comes to Africa's relations with external players, but the broader direction of travel I think is pretty clear.

00:20:59: With African governments really increasingly trying

00:21:10: brings me back to you, May.

00:21:12: There are a few things that Madalena has signposted but I'd like bring you back the corridor politics and poor diplomacy we often think of as technical affairs.

00:21:29: There's a sense that these infrastructures also reshape everyday lives across both regions.

00:21:36: So I'm wondering from your point of view, how have golf-backed port projects in particular affected local labor markets' migration patterns or even social encounters between the Gulf and African societies?

00:21:53: Do you see any new forms of social relations that are emerging along these maritime routes.

00:22:02: Yes, thank you.

00:22:03: I think it's really important to show while we talk about this big infrastructure project a big trends-of trade investment.

00:22:12: they're often perceived by the population across the African countries but also in any kind of countries, it comes with a lot of promises and aspirations that these projects will create opportunities for better life.

00:22:34: jobs for modernizing from more comfortable life, more modernized life.

00:22:40: And we see a lot of hype coming with these investments not just for profit but it always comes up in an aspirational narrative across the population that this is something good for our country.

00:22:56: and people most often do not deliver but they also change things.

00:23:04: So, they might not be delivering what is exactly being promised But definitely changed the texture of social relationships in these societies.

00:23:15: Just zooming on some examples from the Horn of Africa The containerization of trade and modernization of ports automatically creates new jobs, but also end the existing job.

00:23:28: So for example manual labor that existed in these ports will disappear.

00:23:33: it will be replaced by machines the containers from ships to ports and then they will be loaded onto trains or cars, big trucks transported across borders going for internal consumption.

00:23:58: Either way we'll see some communities that existed in these countries.

00:24:07: like the manual labor, the porters will disappear and there's nothing new about this.

00:24:12: All the ports across the globe that have went through the containerization and modernization processes has also seen these communities disappear.

00:24:24: And for example, in Berbera there was a very interesting story about this community that's called the Galla which is a very historical community.

00:24:34: That is basically responsible for manual labor of porters and they create these social associations Insurance, they support each other.

00:24:48: They even have songs that sing while working from historical eras.

00:24:55: and one of the consequences is modernizing the port of Berbera.

00:25:00: this community will soon disappear And somehow now they are used in a more limited way, because not all the port is containerized.

00:25:09: There's still some parts of the Port that it's still based on manual labor but we will see eventually when all the trade is containerised Somehow They'll have to disappear and be replaced by bureaucrats or people working at offices.

00:25:29: This is just one example of this, but at the same time we see that social relationships in Barbara has started to change as well.

00:25:38: Many people in the diaspora became more interested and coming back to Barbra buying lands increasing land prices seeing investment opportunities that did not exist before because they saw it as a rising city.

00:25:53: somehow, eventually it will be a rising city.

00:25:57: Also the port became connected with a corridor that is aimed at transporting trade from the ports to Ethiopia or to Hargeesa and other parts of Samadiland.

00:26:10: This corridor now takes around two hours by car or trucks would use to ours before the modernization of this corridor.

00:26:19: The trip will take around six or seven hours for trucks to pass this road, so there were many communities and villages across the road that had an economic activity based on these truck stopping across the route to rest because it took seven hours to do this.

00:26:35: Now that he takes two hours they don't even need to stop.

00:26:39: So we'll see some as well disappear.

00:26:41: Some of these communities will have to relocate, they'll find other sources of income.

00:26:48: so we see some small changes happening along the projects but also bigger changes in social relationships that somehow there's a new generation more interested being educated getting formal education be able to serve in these new jobs and your roles that are being opened by this.

00:27:13: companies, buy these opportunities.

00:27:15: We see also the diaspora seeing again other opportunities.

00:27:19: maybe they would come back to their homeland.

00:27:21: we're able to find jobs you able to invest fine investment opportunities that did not really exist before.

00:27:30: so in a way we see this At more like the national level, we see also how many of these countries start to link and they leverage this project.

00:27:41: So in a way, and that's part of the agency that Madelaine I was talking about.

00:27:50: Many African countries are now being able to negotiate.

00:27:54: they're able to extract some profits actually dictate their conditions during these negotiations.

00:28:02: something did not exist at the colonial era.

00:28:06: Nowadays, they have more agency.

00:28:08: But part of that agency as well is not just accepting the narrative.

00:28:13: many companies come and export on to them.

00:28:18: so Dubai or DP World has this kind model where they want transform all port cities along East Africa into a Dubai Model.

00:28:32: somehow there is a model, successful model that we want to replicate.

00:28:37: And then when we traced some of this narrative it's actually not really a Dubai model that has been accepted by many of these Africans.

00:28:45: they acknowledged that Dubai was very successful but they weave it into their own aspiration for their own cities, for their history and understanding of what they want to be in the future.

00:29:01: This is our national aspiration where we don't wanna be exactly like Dubai when you take a successful model... ...but also strengthen our historical and cultural distinctiveness within this process being replicated in Djibouti and Burbara.

00:29:21: And it's also a very interesting way to see how these external projects, they're not just about installing physical kind of artifacts... It is not only about cranes or containers but comes with a lot of social identity processes that exist across communities as well at the national level.

00:29:42: That's really, really fascinating this zooming in and the effects that such relations have on the ground.

00:29:51: But for my last question I would like to zoom out again and briefly ask you both given the current global context, as regional instability persists particularly around choke points like Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

00:30:08: How might you see both of your Gulf-Africa relations evolve let's say maybe in the next five to ten years if you have a brief prediction for very far away future which is not?

00:30:22: all too far in reality.

00:30:25: Maybe start with you, Madalena and then Mayu will have the last word.

00:30:31: Yeah, thanks Desiree for the question.

00:30:33: So I don't think that these crises will actually overturn like change dramatically Gulf Africa ties.

00:30:40: This crisis is exposing vulnerabilities and strengths of their relationship But it's also sort of reinforcing The reasons why gulf-africa relations started deepening in recent years?

00:30:54: so i think In the short term in the next few months maybe a year or so defects are pretty immediate and tangible actually on both sides because there is a lot of interdependence more.

00:31:08: So price shocks, supply chain disruptions pressure connectivity.

00:31:13: we know how much transit through the Strait of Hormuz in terms of energy and many other important products And We also see that for African economies The impact will be slightly uneven For oil exporters like Nigeria Angola, of course they might benefit from higher prices.

00:31:33: But most countries... Most of Africa imports refined petroleum products so that will face rising costs not only for these specific products but anything that is transported and fueled by this product.

00:31:48: So fuel transport fertilizers and much more.

00:31:52: These cost mean less capacity for social spending within African countries curb inflation and so immediate social effects.

00:32:03: Connectivity is also an issue, because as we tried to unpack throughout this podcast it's very crucial that ninety percent of Africa's trade actually moves by the sea.

00:32:15: It depends on routes and infrastructure tied somewhat to golf hubs.

00:32:21: So disruptions in the Red Sea since twenty-twenty four after the Houthi attacks have forced rerouting around The Cape of Good Hope, and they've brought some benefits but also shown some vulnerabilities in African ports.

00:32:37: And what is happening today?

00:32:38: Is doing the same basically Also reinforcing these other route which has not a simple fix than I on African ports readiness to increase flows.

00:32:49: The same goes with air traffic, as i mentioned earlier.

00:32:53: like Doha Dubai Abu Dhabi have become major transit hubs for african connectivity and with their closure or reduced flows anyways a lot is going via Africa.

00:33:06: but Addis Ababa Cairo those hubs that could take inflows do struggle.

00:33:15: But anyway, this is in the short term.

00:33:18: In the medium and longer-term.

00:33:19: I think that rather than triggering a retreat these instabilities likely to actually change how golf actors engage... ...and how African players engage with the golf capital might be more selective in terms of focusing on core investments linked to logistics and strategic supply chains like for example minors minerals, energy food.

00:33:46: And this is where Africa's role could grow.

00:33:48: if the Gulf becomes a more volatile hub and it will take awhile after these crises to go back to being a more secure hub then building alternative nodes across ports corridors energy and so forth become some way to hedge risk not only for African in global players but also for golf players actually for investment to part of the broader resilience strategy when it comes to supply chains.

00:34:19: And in this context, I think intra-African trade and connectivity become a very tangible direct opportunity.

00:34:31: I

00:34:33: totally agree on the short and long term.

00:34:35: I think that somehow this crisis might actually instigate a more diversification, deepening our relationship between the Gulf and Africa.

00:34:47: And what we've seen so far is that global trade always finds away That when the Red Sea was blocked There was immediately a reconsideration of turning around the continent in order to find another way.

00:35:03: Also now, with the Strait of Hormuz we can see how trade from Indian Ocean that is coming from Asia crossing, often stopping in Strait of Hormuz started redirecting to actually come through this West Canal or even across the African continent.

00:35:21: So trade always finds a way and I think that direction from these crises on lesson learned by many international actor that flexibility will be the way forward.

00:35:31: we just don't need to invest one hub but it's about diversifying these trade routes in order to actually be able to absorb any crisis.

00:35:42: So if a crisis here happens we have an alternative, and I think this is going will not be again just a place for investment, but it would also be a buffer to kind of absorb all these crises.

00:36:04: So we might see in the near future more investments in African ports and more investments along many of this maritime route – not only focusing on one by actually trying to diversify these routes in order to be able to deal with any unprecedented crisis.

00:36:22: And there is always the risk of lower spending, that somehow lower spending or lower profits coming from oil prices increasing.

00:36:31: for many constraints created by this crisis might lead into some freezing investment and lowering investments.

00:36:41: but I think also many actors see diversification as a strategic need.

00:36:49: It's not something that they would do to just invest money or create profit, but it will become a mean for survival and a means of protecting the trade routes and actually many opportunities created in the past two decades.

00:37:02: so I see there is somehow a strategic importance for creating diversification and deepening.

00:37:11: Mei,

00:37:14: Adelina.

00:37:15: Thank you so much to both of you for joining.

00:37:18: I think it was really a fascinating conversation and i would like also thank all the listeners who are tuning in.

00:37:26: And of course we hope that you will follow the Waza project on our future episodes.

00:37:31: For more insights into what's up podcast and upcoming research on Gulf Africa relations We invite you visit out website and follow Carpo on social media, LinkedIn or Instagram.

00:37:47: Thank you for listening to the WhatsApp podcast until next time!